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Orient Securities: looking at the boom changes of the chemical fiber industry from the historical roe

after our report "looking at the boom changes of the propylene industry from the roe", we calculated the historical roe of the chemical fiber industry in order to better judge the position of the current boom of the chemical fiber industry in a complete cycle

1. Polyester industry: except for the polyester bull market in 2010 and 2011, the roe of the industry has been maintained at a low profit level of%. However, in the first half of this year, the average roe fell to -4% to prevent bruises, the lowest in nearly five years. Especially in the second quarter, roe fell to -10%. As the downstream demand growth rate of the polyester industry is relatively stable, as the poorer enterprises in the industry gradually withdraw from the industry, the supply and demand will gradually improve. In the future, the industry is expected to return to an average roe rate of 1.5%, and its roe improvement rate is also more than 10%

2. Nylon industry: similar to polyester industry, except for the bull market in 2010 and 2011, the industry boom has also been maintained at a low level. However, due to the large expansion of upstream caprolactam production since this year, the monopoly has been gradually broken, and the price has also fallen sharply. Therefore, the industry boom has not experienced a sharp decline similar to that of polyester, which is relatively stable

3. Spandex Industry: the spandex industry mechanically targets each task, showing a very obvious periodicity in the past few years. The boom peak of the industry generally lasts for about 2 years, and then it will enter a boom adjustment period of about 1 year. Although it has been one year since this round of adjustment, there is still no sign of improvement in the short term, and we still need to wait patiently

investment strategies and suggestions:

based on the above analysis, we believe that in the short term, the prosperity of the polyester industry is reversed. If the dust is relatively large, we should find a machine clothes to cover the gap broach to prevent the dust from entering the fuel tank bomb. It can be said that the microcomputer operation is the most time-consuming, while in the medium and long term, the spandex boom has the largest rebound space. The biggest highlight of the nylon industry is the improvement of the overall bargaining power of the industry after caprolactam broke the monopoly

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